Global warming inputs in local climate changes of the Kherson region: current state and forecast of the air temperature

P.V. Lykhovyd

Abstract


The study is devoted to the global warming impact on the local climate in the Kherson region of Ukraine. Results of the study prove great impact of the global climate changes on the local climate conditions, especially, air temperature. Air temperature raise during the last years is considered to be the valuable factor of the global ecosystems changes. The short-term forecast of the air temperature by using the triple exponential smoothing Holt-Winters model showed a clear tendency to significant climate warming in the Kherson region till 2025. Average annual air temperature in 2025 probably would rise to +12.2°C, mainly at the expense of warming of the summer period. Climate changes will inevitably cause gradual changes in ecosystems of the different levels and impact greatly on human beings.


Keywords


global warming;climate change;air temperature;Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing;forecast

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/2018_307

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